Friday, 9 March 2012

Recessions and recoveries: a historical perspective (updated March 9)



NIESR estimates that GDP grew by 0.1% in the three months to February 2012.  Output remains roughly flat.  Here is a further updated version of NIESR's chart showing the path of recession and recovery in various previous downturns.  The chart shows that this "depression" - defined, admittedly somewhat arbitrarily, as the time period during which output remains below its previous peak, shown as the X-axis above - is now longer than that experienced during the Great Depression, and is not likely to end any time soon. It also shows how what was initially a reasonably strong, albeit patchy, recovery stalled in the autumn of 2010; since then there has been very little growth . 

2 comments:

  1. In my view the risks are hugely exaggerated (see here and here). But what is far less discussed is the downside of inaction. If we do not do something to boost labour demand now, we are not just taking a risk. home alarms systems
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    We are accepting the future economic and social damage that will be done by these levels of unemployment. [Those who want to see this explained rigorously in a cost-benefit framework should read Brad Delong for a brilliant analysis of this point.]

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  2. But what is far less discussed is the downside of inaction. If we do not do something to boost labour demand now dvd box set

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